this is not really an organized article on the topic just a collection of thoughts, reflecting on what i have heard and what i am surprised that i have not heard in all that is being said and written about the current economic crisis. if anyone sends me questions, i will try to respond.
Some Background -
we hear a lot about how complex the debt instruments that caused the problem are (the "toxic" assets). that is certainly true, but it shouldn't matter. telling us it is too complicated for us to understand is an excuse to argue that we need to trust experts and not tie their hands in any way as they attempt to extricate us from this enormous mess. but we don't need to understand the assets that are undermining our various banking institutions, we only need to understand how these institutions got to be "too big to fail." why do i say that? because if they weren't too big to fail (ie so huge and interwoven into the fabric of our economy that if they go down they will take the whole economy with them) we could simply let them fail. that would make sense. make stupid loans, lose your money. this is a fundamental tenet of how capitalism is supposed to work (and something i myself have done more times than i can count - lousy capitalist that i am). specialization. you have knowledge in a particular area, you understand the risks, you look at the risk / reward ratios and decide which risks to take on. the nature of high risk situations in finance is that the potential payoff is very high but the chance of actually getting paid is low. you understand the business and you are in the best position to decide if the risk is "worth it." if you are right you get rich, if you are wrong you go broke. that is how capitalism is supposed to work. that's why americans admire entrepreneurs so much. they are supposed to be the risk takers at the heart of this economy.
but what if there is no downside risk? if you are right you get rich and if you are wrong you get bailed out. this creates a problem economists call moral hazard. economists are always concerned about incentives. moral hazard means essentially that if you are cushioned from paying the "full price" for your "bad" behavior you have less incentive to behave well. as an undergraduate economics major i was told that seat belts create a situation of moral hazard - a driver wearing a seatbelt will drive less cautiously because the consequences of having an accident are reduced (for the seat belt wearer). ok, that is a little ridiculous (a lot of what i was taught was a little ridiculous). once upon a time we used to hear about moral hazard and the ordering of medical tests. once upon a time when more people had decent health insurance, doctors had an incentive to order "too many" tests. why? because the insurance company bore the costs of the test (not doctor or patient) but the price of missing something important would fall on the doctor (possible malpractice) and the patient (possible severe illness or death). trying to align the doctor's interests with the insurance company's interests led to the creation of the hmo. less moral hazard but also a lot less security for the patient. the doctor is no longer trying to do everything possible to save the patient, now the doctor is trying to save the insurance company money.
long tangent. but the moral hazard implications of the situation we are now in are clear and enormous. the risk equations are now completely distorted. imagine that i have $10,000 to "invest" (i put invest in quotes because we are now living in an era when real investment is dwarfed by pure speculation). i could buy u.s. treasury bonds. those are (used to be?) considered about the safest investment there is. i'm not actually checking the current numbers but i imagine that the interest rate on a 10 year treasury note is around 4%. 4% of $10,000 is $400. so my $10,000 investment will earn me $400 in interest each year. safe / secure investment, not a big income generator. now imagine that i take my $10,000 to a casino and "invest" in roulette. if i choose a single number to put my money on and i guess correctly i'm rewarded with 35 times my initial investment - that's $350,000. the chance of me guessing correctly is small which is why people still buy treasury bonds instead of "investing" their kids' college money in a trip to the casino, but that is for regular people. what if i am "too big to fail"? if i am "too big to fail" when i walk into the casino and put my $10,000 on a single number on the roulette wheel what are the potential outcomes? if i guess right, i come out with $350,000. if i guess wrong, hank paulson gives me my $10,000 back. in the current plan not only do i get my money back, i don't even get told to stay out of the casino. if i'm "too big to fail" i'm going right back in and do it again. no reason not to. and, i might add, no reason to buy treasury bonds or "invest" in the economy. if my speculation (gambling) has only upside potential and no downside risk than why would i invest when i could speculate? if i am rational (economists like to imagine that people are rational) i will choose the highest potential reward whatever the odds. i'll bet the entire u.s. economy on double zero.
to finish the analogy i want to stress that the problem here is not whether or not the taxpayers understand roulette (or mortgage backed securities). if the taxpayers understood roulette, maybe they would say they are not bailing me out unless i promise not to play anymore roulette. if that was a condition of the bailout, i wouldn't leave the casino, i would just find another game to "invest" in. and if i was told i couldn't go to the casino at all, i would go straight to the track. as long as i get the reward and you absorb the risk, i will always choose to gamble rather than invest. you don't need to understand the various "games of chance" and micromanage what i can and cannot gamble on. you need to figure out how i got to be "too big to fail" (because this is what makes the risks i take on your risks) and take corrective action.
What Causes "Too Big To Fail"?
the short answer is de-regulation and most directly, in this particular case, the passage in 1999 of the financial services modernization act which repealed very important depression era legislation known as glass-steagall. the most important provision of glass-steagall, from the perspective of trying to understand the current mess, is that it required a "fire-wall" between speculative banking operations ("investment" banking) and commercial banking operations (checking and saving accounts for "regular" people). this "fire-wall" was extremely important because of course the issue now is not the size of these speculative operations (HUGE) but the fact that these speculative losses have the potential to wipe out the savings of "regular" people on "main street" who had no idea they were potentially exposed to this level of risk. for more than 60 years banks, like the one that offered you a free toaster for opening a checking account, were not allowed to own brokerage firms or "investment" banks. in 1999 the "fire wall" went bye-bye and a merger & acquisition frenzy gripped the financial services sector of our economy. of course we've been living in de-regulating times since the reagan revolution so there was bad (regulation loosening) legislation before 1999 and there has been bad stuff since, but if you want to focus on one particularly lousy piece of legislation (and it is always a challenge to pick just one piece of lousy legislation) than for purposes of explaining the current crisis my choice would have to be the 1999 act which repealed glass-steagall.
but wait. clinton was the president who signed the financial services modernization act into law. and robert rubin, who was clinton's treasury secretary and may be treasury secretary again in an obama administration, was a major player pushing the legislation. (and phil gramm who is a possible mccain treasury secretary was the act's main author and primary champion in congress). you might expect that the bush administration would relish the opportunity to blame yet another one of their crises on the previous administration. and yet they needed to find a way to blame clinton without blaming deregulation, without blaming greedy corporations run amok. it took awhile but they managed to find a way to blame clinton and the poor! (somewhere carl rove is smiling).
are you f---ing kidding me? the financial meltdown is the fault of the poor? the only greed we need be concerned about is greedy poor people determined to live beyond their means in houses they can't afford? are we actually expected to swallow this crap?
to hear bush administration officials explain it, clinton's problem was not that he was a free trade loving, regulation hating menace to society (that describes every president we've had since i was old enough to vote). clinton's problem was that he wanted to help poor people so much that he refused to see how stupid and greedy they are. clinton wanted so badly to create his vision of an "ownership" society (yet another vision he shares with his successor) that he ignored the credit unworthiness of the people he wanted to help. that is the official position of the bush administration. clinton is responsible because he trusted poor people too much and was too blinded by altruism! (this is not my explanation, i am paraphrasing the way bush people attributed blame for the crisis - personally, i think this argument is garbage - keep reading).
Misleading People By Abusing Language -
as a radical i care very much about the actual meaning of words. politicians are masters at using language to create smokescreens. it is an enormous source of frustration for me. so in this section i'm going to vent about some the language we've been hearing and what is behind it. before i get to deregulation i have to talk about the "ownership society" part 1 - what clinton did. suppose that clinton really did care about poor people and believed in that greatest virtue under capitalism the ownership of private property. if clinton wanted to get poor people into their own homes he could have facilitated that process. in 1999 there was a budget surplus (remember those?) so such a project would not have even required new enormous deficits. frannie mae and freddie mac should have been nationalized (well actually they should have never been privitized) and told to return to the mission for which they were created, helping people get into and stay in their homes. you don't do that by tricking people into borrowing way more than they can afford to borrow. you do that by helping people with down-payments and subsidized low interest mortgages. we know how to do this. this is part of the mission of the fha (federal housing authority) and part of the mission of fannie & freddie. it is easy. back before the era of giving mortgages for 125% of the "value" of a home, it used to be widely accepted that a buyer should have a down-payment equal to at least 20% of the value of the home and get a mortgage for no more than 80%. most poor people won't have the 20% but if a policy decision has been made that we want to get people into homes the government can pay. then you figure out how big a monthly mortgage payment the buyer can afford - a FIXED rate. if that corresponds to a rate of interest that is lower than the going rate the government can make up the difference. viola. people are living in homes that they can actually afford with government help (something some people might actually believe government exists for).
but what did clinton do to help people get into homes? forget down-payments, we'll get rid of those regulations and let people buy homes with NO MONEY DOWN. this is not no money down because the government is making up the difference. this is no money down because you are BORROWING the ENTIRE value of the home. in fact, as long as bank x is making the loan, why not make it for more than the value and use the excess to pay down some credit card debt or take a well-deserved vacation? this feeds the housing bubble and as long as the bubble is fed and prices keep going up it won't matter that you've borrowed more than your home is worth. next year it will be worth more. constantly rising home values will substitute for actual equity down. add to this insane (predatory is a better word) mortgage interest schemes. don't have money for a mortgage payment? you choose how much you want to (are able to) pay (for the first 2 years). we'll give you some ridiculously low adjustable rate mortgage that will balloon to something outrageous 2 years from now. but 2 years from now is the mythical future. people aren't supposed to think that far ahead. it is all about instant gratification. and the joy of a bubble is that 2 years from now the house will be worth so much more than it is right now that the increase in value will create equity where none existed. magic. (even with all this magic, banks wouldn't make loans that make no sense if they had to hold them on their own balance sheets and this is where those extremely complex mortgage securitization schemes come in).
the thing that "regular" people need to understand is that clinton didn't create "ownership" he fed the housing bubble and used that to help feed the credit bubble.
THIS IS NOT FINISHED. MY WORK KEEPS BEING INTERRUPTED BY MY LIFE. I INTEND TO KEEP WRITING BUT WELCOME QUESTIONS EVEN AS THIS IS A WORK IN PROGRESS.